Nobel Prize for Economics : Sargent and Sims

This is the real start of the awards season people with Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims winning the prize this year.


The Marginal Revolution blog has a very easy to follow of explanation of what it is these chaps have done to win a prize that so pisses off physicists, chemists and other "real" scientists the world over. Check it out here.

And for all you "real" scientists out there, please enjoy Dilbert cartoon

Oh right, the blog...Sorry about that.

Having taken a career break from the blog (i.e. I got a career) I thought I would try and get things moving back here before you go off and hang out with those no-goodniks over at the Irish Economy blog.

So here are a few things I came across recently that may be of interest:

The first is taken from Paul Krugman's blog in which he cites a paper by Muller, Mendelsohn, and Nordhaus who use the example of air pollution* and how this side-effect of production affects society and how this does (or doesn't) impact on policy makers and potential contradictions in their ideology.

They find that in a purely monetary sense the cost to society is huge with a number of industries inflicting more damage in the form of air pollution than the value-added by these industries at market prices. The argument, Krugman explains, is as follows "consumers are paying much too low a price for coal-generated electricity, because the price they pay does not take account of the very large external costs associated with generation. If consumers did have to pay the full cost, they would use much less electricity from coal — maybe none, but that would depend on the alternatives."

Ah. So we tax them then to make up for this disparity and offset the detrimental impact of air pollution. A response to such a market failure is required but this will be shot down by those who think Adam Smith was a leftie-pinko interventionist. 

An interesting examination of how one's ideology and need to be right can hinder them from doing what is most efficient. Not necessarily a trait only found in conservatives though...

Secondly Yoram Bauman, PhD., is the (sigh) Stand Up Economist. Moreover, he is not dreadful, in fact he's actually pretty good. Unlike that bloke at Guy's Econometrics blog who changes the lyrics of popular songs to econometrics terms...Bleugh.

Check out the Bauman's explanation of the Greg Mankiw's 10 Principles of Economics here. I especially like his footnote joke. I mean, seriously some of the footnotes in my old macro book were straight out of the Third Policeman.


* = always the staple for discussing external costs to society, just like cakes are always the example used when discussing diminishing marginal utility.

Millionaires Demand to Pay More

Check out this video.

The 200-strong Patriotic Millionaires for Fiscal Strength group (catchy name) is demanding that President Obama raise their taxes.

This will surely take off across the world, right ?... Right ?!

David Cottle asks "Are These Havens Really the Safest Places to Go"?

David Cottle in the Wall Street Journal looks at the so-called safe havens of the bond markets (i.e.US, Swiss, Japanese and German bonds) and wonders why in times of downturn these bonds are perceived as being less risky despite their connection to the global downturn (Germany's funding of it's Eurozone partners bailouts) or their own endogenous problems ( US debt, Japan's stagnant economy).

Cottle highlights a report by UBS which concludes that, to some extent at least, this may be investors from these safe havens coming home to roost by investing back in domestic bonds after having invested abroad during times of global growth.

Article here.

Brady Bonds to the rescue ?

Alright, everybody come back out from behind their couches. Morgan Kelly's buggered off for another four months so we can all get back to reading less scary and more constructive  opinion pieces. Like this one by Barry Eichengreen.

The Berkley professor discusses using a system of financial instruments and regulations similar to the Brady Bonds of the 1980s to deal with Greece and the increasing likelihood that it is facing default. Eichengreen cites a plan devised by two veterans of the Brady Bonds: Gary Evans and  Peter Allen. He also points out that another veteran of the Brady Bonds was a certain Mr. Trichet...

Mohamed A. El-Erian: How Risky is the Global Economy?

Rather than just stretching his arms as wide as possible and saying "about this much" Mohamed A. El-Erian discusses four potential risks that the weakened global economy still faces. These are:

• The world as a whole has yet to deal fully with the economic consequences of unrest in the Middle East and the tragedies in Japan.
• The debt crisis in the EU's periphery.
• Housing in the US is weakening again.
• The increasingly visible fiscal predicament in the US: having used fiscal spending aggressively to avoid a depression, the US must now commit to a credible medium-term path of fiscal consolidation

It is not a pessimistic or alarmist view and makes for interesting reading. It would however have been helpful for El-Erian to include his opinions on what could be done to counter these risks.

This Project Syndicate article is taken from a lecture Mr. El-Erian gave at Princeton.

Wall Street Journal's Top 25 Economics Blogs

Hi apologies on my absence from the blogosphere.

As I'm sure you were all freaking out over my disappearance, I vow to make sure that you guys won't ever be left staring blankly at The False Economist homepage, refreshing it every fifteen seconds for days on end again.

So please enjoy a veritable cornucopia of other economics blogs as rated by Wall Street Journal.

List available here.